Analysis: Kylian Mbappe’s Group Stage By the Numbers and Why He Will Win the Golden Boot

The France talisman striker is the favorite to win the Golden Boot, here’s why.

It is easy to say he is the favorite when he is tied for the lead with Alvaro Morata and Bruno Fernandes (3 goals), but other data points are pointing toward his direction.


After the group stage where he played three games, only 23 minutes in France’s loss to Tunisia, he is the leader or co-leader in a few key categories which indicates just how dominant he has been in Qatar so far.

Kylian Mbappe after France’s loss to Tunisia in the Group Stage of Qatar 2022. credit:

He is first for shot attempts with 16, second for shots per 90 with 6.92, first for shots on target with 7 (43% of his shots have been on target), and first for my favorite category expected goals with 2.4.

Even while barely playing in the third match of the group stage, he has been efficient enough to achieve an expected goal per 90 value of 1.04 and sits 4th out of all the players at Qatar 2022.


Depending on the length of France’s journey in the Knockout Stage, Mbappe could be playing 4 more games, if he maintains a similar xG value throughout, or even if he experiences a regression, a goal tally of 6 goals is not out of reach, and would be enough, in my opinion, to finish first in the Golden Boot race. The last two winners, Harry Kane in 2018 and James Rodriguez in 2014, finish their tournament with 6 goals scored.

Until next time, have a great soccer!

You can reach Kevin Laramee at


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