8 more have fallen, and 8 remain in the quest for the most coveted trophy in sports.
Full bracket below.
Croatia vs Brazil – Friday, December 9th, 2022 10 am E / 7 am P – Education City Stadium
Television: TSN / CTV in Canada – FOX in the USA
Radio: IHeart Radio, TSN Radio, and Sirius/XM
After needing penalties to get over the surprising Blue Samurai of Japan, Croatia will now head to the Education City Stadium to face tournament favorite Brazil in the first quarterfinal of the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup. The Blazers have a big task ahead of them, they have never won against Brazil, having faced them 4 times in the past, with 3 losses and 1 draw. They faced each other twice at the World Cup. The first time was in 2006 in Berlin during the 2006 World Cup in Germany, they were both in Group F and played against one another in their opening game of the tournament. Brazil won 1-0 with Kaka scoring the lone goal at the 44′. Luka Modric was on the bench for that game but did not play any minutes. the second time was in 2014 in the opening match of the Brazil World Cup, and Croatia played the host at Arena de Sao Paulo. Neymar scored twice, and Oscar, then Chelsea superstar, scored the third one for the Selecao. Marcelo scored an own goal to put Croatia on the board, but it was a dominant performance by Brazil.
Formations of choice:
- Brazil: 4-2-3-1
- Croatia: 4-3-3
Kevin’s Notes
Croatia is the team left in the competition with the biggest expected goals against value, 5.0, and could struggle against arguably the best attack left in the tournament, Brazil, which has an expected goal value of 9.4, the second highest expected assists value with 6.5, and the highest amount of Shot Creating Actions of all the team to participate in the World cup with 133, an average of 33.25 per game.
Prediction
Brazil by 2 goals in regulation.
Netherlands vs Argentina – Friday, December 9th, 2022 2:00 pm E / 11:00 am P – Lusail Stadium
Television: TSN / CTV in Canada – FOX in the USA
Radio: IHeart Radio, TSN Radio, and Sirius/XM
The Oranje have impressed thus far in Qatar. They have the 4th best attack of the tournament heading into the quarterfinals and have looked sharp with the return to fitness of talisman striker Memphis Depay. He has scored 43 goals in 85 games with the Netherlands and bagged 29 assists. Cody Gakpo has scored 3 goals already at this World Cup and will be looking to keep up with Mbappe in the Golden Boot race. Look for a motivated Gakpo in front of the net on Friday. To be effective though, the Dutch will need possession of the ball and Argentina are second only to Spain during this tournament with 65% of the ball. I believe for a rare instance the winner of the possession battle will be the winner of this game, as they will have found a way to service their world-class finishers, Messi for Argentina, and Depay/Gakpo for the Netherlands.
Formations of choice:
- Netherlands: 3-4-1-2
- Argentina: 4-3-3
Kevin’s Notes
Argentina has the best defense in the tournament according to the advanced metrics with an extremely small 1.3 expected goals against value in 4 games, an average of 0.33 xGA per game. The Netherlands has an xGA value of 3.9 with an average of 1.04 per game. This could be the difference-maker in this matchup.
Prediction
Argentina wins a close affair, 1-0 in extra-time, Messi, who else.
Morocco vs Portugal – Saturday, December 10th, 2022 10:00 am E / 7:00 am P – Al Thumana Stadium
Television: TSN / CTV in Canada – FOX in the USA
Radio: IHeart Radio, TSN Radio, and Sirius/XM
After surprising everyone and winning Group F, Morocco continued its cinderella run with an amazing performance from the penalty spot, beating contender Spain 3-0 in the skills competition that is a shoutout. Montreal-born Bono, Chelsea’s Ziyech, and Madrid-born Hakimi have inspired a new generation of Moroccan children and brought joy to 40 million fans. Portugal stomped Switzerland 6-1 and made a statement by starting Ramos up top instead of the moody Cristiano Ronaldo. He repaid his manager by scoring three goals in his first international start and has now made the striker job his.
Portugal and Morocco faced each other twice in their history and both times at the World Cup. The first time was in the Mexico 1986 World Cup, a Group F match that Morocco won 3-1, with Abdelrazze Khairi scoring a brace in the victory. The second time was in 2018, in a Group B match in the Russia World Cup, Portugal won 1-0 with the lone goal coming from the boot of Cristiano Ronaldo.
Formations of Choice:
- Morocco: 4-3-3
- Portugal: 4-3-3
Kevin’s Notes
Portugal is one of the most accurate teams when it comes to shots at this World Cup with 40 % of their shot being on target, and with the clinical finish of the Portuguese players, it could be a long match for Morocco.
Prediction
The clock strikes midnight, the carriage turns back into a pumpkin, and Portugal by 2.
England vs France – Saturday, December 10th, 2022 2:00 pm E / 11:00 am P – Al Bayt Stadium
Television: TSN / CTV in Canada – FOX in the USA
Radio: IHeart Radio, TSN Radio, and Sirius/XM
The winner gets control of the Channel, right?
It will be the third meeting at the World Cup between these two rivals, the first since 1982. In history, England faced France thirty-two times in all competitions, with a record of 17 wins, 9 losses, and 5 draws. Mbappe is the best striker in this tournament so far with 5 goals scored, and to the surprise of many, Harry Kane has been the best passer with 3 assists. France has found a chemistry that reminds me of Russia 2018, and we all know how that ended. Mbappe, even though he missed training on Tuesday, Kylian has mentioned his obsession with this tournament, and I predict he will finish with at least the Golden Boot trophy, given to the best goal scorer of the tournament, if not the World Cup trophy itself. The depth of France’s roster, their tactical flexibility, and their speed on the flanks with Dembele, Camavinga, and Mbappe is going to be a challenge for the tactically rigid English side. Being two teams who like to play with the ball with a high possession percentage since the beginning of the tournament, it is going to come down to who will be efficient with their opportunities in front of the net.
Formations of choice
- England: 4-2-3-1
- France: 4-2-3-1
Kevin’s Notes
In a matchup between two teams with high possession (France 58%, England 64%), the opportunities and the efficiency to finish those chances will be what makes the difference in my opinion. France has generated an average of 32 Shot Creating Actions over their World Cup so far, virtually twice as much as England. I like to compare expected goals with actual goals scored to gauge the replicability factor of performances, and when I compare those ratios, France really has an edge over England.
France: 8.6 xG / 9 goals scored = 98% of their goals were expected, hence replicable in my opinion
England: 6.3 xG / 12 goals scored = 53% of their goals were expected, hence replicable in my opinion
Massive edge for the Frenchmen.
Also when I look at the recoveries+interceptions+tackles equation, you can listen to the latest episode of Soccer Today where I talk a little bit about this formula, I see a massive edge for the defending world champions.
France: 193 recoveries + 44 interceptions + 88 tackles = 325
England: 182 recoveries + 30 interceptions + 49 tackles = 261
It indicates to me a higher potential of recovering the ball possession if lost and the capacity of taking away the possession from the opponent. In a game where both teams will fight for ball control, the ability to get the ball back might be what tips the scale.
Prediction
Mbappe scores again, Dembele finds the space in front of Jude Bellingham, and it’s a party on the Champs Élysées.
Oh, Champs Élysées.
Pan, pan, pan ,pan, pan.
Admit it, you sang along.
Allez les Bleus by 2 goals.
You can contact Kevin at KevinOnSoccer@gmail.com for bookings or advertising opportunities.
Bracket
SoccerToday.ca 
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